Nicholas Kozeniauskas


Email: nicjkoz(at)

Curriculum Vitae

I am an economist interested in firm dyanamics and their relevance for aggregate economic questions. My research is in the fields of macroeconomics, international trade and entrepreneurship. I received my PhD from NYU in 2018 and am currently a Research Economist at the Bank of Portugal and a member of the Business and Economics Research Unit at Católica-Lisbon.


What are Uncertainty Shocks? (with Anna Orlik and Laura Veldkamp)
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2018, 100:1–15
Ungated version | VoxEU article

Macro volatility on its own can generate realistic fluctuations in a range of commonly used, and seemingly distinct, uncertainty measures: micro dispersion (cross-sectional variance of firm-level outcomes), higher-order uncertainty (disagreement) and macro uncertainty (uncertainty about macro outcomes).

Working papers

What's Driving the Decline in Entrepreneurship?
January 2018—New version coming soon!

This paper documents new facts about the decline in entrepreneurship in the US and interprets them with an occupational choice model. Increasing fixed costs, which could be due to technological change or increases in regulations, are found to explain most of the decline in the aggregate entrepreneurship rate. Skill-biased technical change accounts for the larger decrease in entrepreneurship amongst more educated people.

On the Cleansing Effect of Recessions and Government Policy: Evidence from Covid-19 (with Pedro Moreira and Cezar Santos)
July 2021

Covid-19 had a cleansing effect on the intensive margin, with higher-productivity firms being more successful at maintaining employment. But the exit rate of low productivity firms did not increase, and government support disproportionately went to these firms.

Work in progress

Demand Learning, Customer Capital and Exporter Dynamics (with Spencer Lyon)

A general equilibrium model with a customer accumulation friction and learning about demand can match moments of exporter dynamics well. Accounting for these makes the effects of trade liberalization and protectionism far more non-linear.